Election: How to Vote for Brexit in London

You voted for Brexit and your priority on June 8 is to make sure that the next government gets you as far out of the EU as possible. Theresa May has promised to take Britain out of the single market and the economic union, so how should you vote to make sure she delivers?

RE-ELECT THE TORIES

The most important thing is to ensure that May remains Prime Minister.  That means voting for the Tories in every seat where the main rival is either Labour or the Liberal Democrats, a rule which covers most seats in London.

VOTE FOR UKIP

An exception to that pro-Tory rule is in any seat where UKIP has a chance of winning. Nothing would put as much anti-EU steel into Theresa May’s spine as having a group of UKIP Members of Parliament waiting to pounce on any wavering on the Brexit cause.

There are only a few seats in London that seem within reach for UKIP. In the 2015 general election UKIP came second in four seats in the far east of the London metropolitan region and one seat in the south east, Orpington, and UKIP insiders say that those five seats remain the party’s London priority on June 8.

Two of those seats were won by Labour in 2015 but could be seized now by the anti-EU cause if Tory Brexit supporters voted tactically by switching to UKIP.

UKIP campaigners say their number one priority is Dagenham & Rainham, which was retained in 2015 by a very relieved Labour MP Jon Cruddas with 41.4% of the vote. The pro-Brexit candidates had majority support, with UKIP taking 29.8% and the Tories 24.4%. If just half of the Tory vote shifted to UKIP on June 8 it would ensure the election of a hardline pro-Brexit MP.

In neighbouring Barking, Labour veteran Margaret Hodge was re-elected in 2015 with 57.7% of the vote but even that buffer could be vulnerable given the atrocious poll ratings of Labour under Jeremy Corbyn. UKIP came second last time with 22.2% and is well positioned to syphon support from the Tories, who gathered 16.3% in 2015.

There are several other seats won by the Tories in 2015 that could shift to UKIP with a more determined and tactical pro-Brexit vote this time around, as voters realise there is no danger of their seat going to Labour.

Hornchurch & Upminster, for instance, saw just 20.1% of voters backing Labour in 2015, with 49% voting for the anti-Brexit Tory MP Angela Watkinson and 25.3% for UKIP.

Romford had a Labour vote of only 20.9%, while the Tories won 51% and UKIP 22.8%.

VOTE AGAINST TORY REMAINERS AND FOR LABOUR BREXITEERS

Brexit supporters should run a discerning eye over the individual candidates for both the Tories and Labour.

Getting rid of Tory Remainers and supporting Labour Brexiteers are potent ways of putting the leaders and MPs of each party on notice that their behaviour is being closely watched.

Boris Johnson’s little brother Jo, for instance, is a Tory minister who campaigned vigorously for the Remain cause during the referendum campaign. He won 57% of the vote in 2015, while UKIP took 16.7% and Labour just 15.6%, so a determined pro-Brexit shift could make things uncomfortable for him without risking a loss to Labour.

In Bexleyheath & Crayford the pro-EU Tory MP David Evenett is a touch more vulnerable, having won 46.3% in 2015 compared to UKIP’s 21% and Labour’s 26.2%.

The neighbouring seat of Old Bexley & Sidcup is also held by a pro-EU Tory but MP James Brokenshire has a larger buffer with 52.8% of the vote in 2015 compared to UKIP’s 18.2%.

Labour’s Kate Hoey in Vauxhaull is a pro-Brexit maverick who Brexiteers should support in order to encourage other Labour MPs to take a stand against Europe. Hoey was re-elected in 2015 with 53.8% and could do with some bolstering given Labour’s limp national standing.

VOTE AGAINST THE LIB DEMS

The other cardinal rule for voters who support Brexit is to vote against the Liberal Democrats, the fiercest advocates In London politics for staying in the EU.

That means that a vote for the Tories and even Labour will be better than a vote for the Lib Dems in the seven London electorates that the Lib Dems have a serious chance of winning.

The only London seat that the Lib Dems won in 2015 was Carshalton & Wallington, on the southern tip of the metropolitan region, where Lib Dem Tom Brake won with 34.9%, ahead of the Tories with 31.7% and Labour with 15%. The maths suggest that UKIP voters, who totalled 14.8% of the vote, might be able to unseat Brake by shifting their support to the Tories.

The Tories are also the only party capable of defeating the Lib Dems in Richmond Park, which Conservative MP Zac Goldsmith held until a 2016 by-election, and in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton and Sutton & Cheam.

There are two seats in which Brexit supporters should vote Labour in order to defeat the Lib Dems. In Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Labour’s 43.1% to 34.3% lead over the Lib Dems in 2015 is certain to have been eroded by the poor standing of Jeremy Corbyn’s party but the returning Lib Dem candidate Simon Hughes could still be held at bay if there is “tactical” support for Labour from Tory voters (11.8%  in 2015) and UKIP backers (6.3% in 2015).

It is a similar story in the former Lib Dem seat of Hornsey & Wood Green, where Labour’s 50.9% to 31.8% lead over the Lib Dems in 2015 will almost certainly dwindle, and Labour could do with some tactical help from the Tories (9.3% in 2015) and UKIP (2.2%).

Peter Wilson

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