The voters have spoken but what the hell did they say? They said a lot about the Tories Brexit hard line. As Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn jostle to try to lead a minority government what do the results mean for London?
London: A Labour Heartland
Labour has managed a remarkable surge in London, lifting its dominance of the capital city from 45 to 48 of its 73 seats, with the long-time Tory stronghold of Kensington still undecided. The Tories were down from 27 to just 23 seats in the capital after losing to Labour seats such as Croydon Central.
There was particular success for anti-Brexit Labour MPs who rebelled against the Labour whip by refusing to support legislation to leave the EU, with Tulip Siddiq (Hampstead & Kilburn) and Rupa Huq (Ealing Central & Acton) holding onto their tight marginal seats.
Huq had been one of the most vulnerable MPs in the country but increased her 2015 majority of 272 votes to 13,807. A mixed coalition of Remainers, youngsters and progressives turned out to help Labour derail the expected Tory landslide.
A Lib Dem Revival?
But the failure of leader Tim Farron to cut through with voters and the return of two-party politics left the Lib Dem surge stalling. The share of the national vote won by Labour and the Tories had declined for decades but rocketed back from 67.3% in 2015 to a staggering 82.5%. In a city which voted overwhelmingly to Remain in the EU, the Lib Dems failed to fully capitalise on the Brexit issue, going from the one seat they won in 2015 to just three.
Tom Brake retained his seat of Carshalton & Wallington seat but the Lib Dems lost Victoria Park, which they took from Zac Goldsmith in a by-election last year. Former long-time MP Simon Hughes failed to regain his seat of Bermondsey & Old Southwark and the Lib Dems flopped in seats like Vauxhall, which was comfortably retained by Labour Brexiteer Kate Hoey. A final haul of three seats was well down on the seven seats the Lib Dems won in London in 2010.
Brexit Blues for Tories.
With a national total of 319 seats, the Conservatives do not know whether Theresa May will resign or try to stitch together a minority government with the backing of the 10 MPs from Northern Ireland’s conservative Democratic Unionist Party. The 650 seats in the House of Commons that the official target for a majority is 326 but the fact that the seven Sinn Fein members will not take up their seats reduces the real target to 323 after the appointment of a Speaker.
Theresa May’s hard Brexit vision of Britain was largely rejected by London voters, with the Tories losing seats such as Battersea, where Labour ousted junior minister Jane Ellison.
The Tory tsunami which had threatened to sweep Labour seats such as Ilford North, Eltham and Westminster North never materialised and the Tories lost ground to the Lib Dems in strongly Remain constituencies in the leafy south-eastern suburbs.
Some solace for the Tories comes in the return of former London mayoral candidate Zac Goldsmith to the Commons as he defeated the Lib Dem’s Sarah Olney in a tight race in Richmond Park with a slim majority of 45 votes. Nevertheless, if politics is about managing expectations this was a bad night for the Conservatives in London.
London Calling
London has become even more of a Labour city and is still an anti-Brexit stronghold. The capital city elected almost one in five of all Labour MPs, meaning it will have a remarkably powerful voice in the party room. They will be expected to push for a vision in line with the “London” view of the world, one which is younger, more highly educated, more multicultural, pro-European and internationalist than the rest of the UK.
By contrast fewer than one in 14 of the Tory MPs elected on June 8 hail from London, meaning the city and its interests will not be at the top of the priority list of the overwhelming majority of Conservative MPs.
By Thomas Chambers
The post Election: London Delivers Brexit Blues for the Tories appeared first on Felix Magazine.
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