The G20 meeting in Hamburg has showcased like never before the widening gulf between the growing international status of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the diminished global standing of Theresa May.
Merkel bestrode the world’s most important annual summit as not just the unchallenged “Queen of Europe” as Britain prepares to leave the EU but also the most respected leader of the free world in the age of Donald Trump. It was Merkel, as host of the summit, who refused to appease the US President by watering down the G20 communique’s wording on climate change, instead issuing an unprecedented “G19 plus 1” statement, in which Washington’s view was set out separately from the united position of the world’s other leading countries.
The Chancellor pulled no punches with Trump, declaring that she “deplored” his decision to pull out of the Paris accord on fighting climate change, and insisting that Europe was resigned to coping with weaker US international leadership.
The British PM, on the other hand, took a more timid note with Trump on climate change, instead concentrating on her hopes of winning the bilateral free trade deal that she is desperate to secure for when Britain leaves the EU’s single market. May told reporters before her scheduled 30-minute formal meeting with Trump that she would use the meeting to press him to reverse his decision on the Paris accord.
There was no mention of the issue from Trump and May at their follow-up press conference, which instead focused on Trump’s prediction that the two countries would “very, very quickly” complete a “great” bilateral trade agreement after the UK leaves Brexit. It was not clear whether Trump realised that real negotiations cannot begin until the UK’s trade status is clarified by the completion of its Brexit negotiations with Brussels, and that even to begin such talks the White House would first need the approval of Congress, which could take up to six months to secure.
A senior British official later admitted that even though their sit-down meeting had run 20 minutes overschedule May had not found time to raise the climate issue after all. The British PM’s comments to the media on climate change before the meeting had already sent “a clear message to the President that she wants him to rejoin the agreement,” the official said, adding that May would raise the issue informally when she saw Trump between summit events. May told reporters a few hours later that she had indeed raised the issue with Trump in their informal contacts.
While May, 60, has lost her parliamentary majority within her first year as PM and is in a precarious position both at home and in the Brexit negotiations, 62-year-old Merkel is in a different league as Germany prepares for a more dominant position within the EU without Britain. Already the longest serving leader in the 27-nation EU, Merkel enjoys remarkably strong approval ratings with German voters ahead of elections in September which are expected to extend her 12-year rule as Chancellor.
Even more striking is the evidence of Merkel’s growing international respect and popularity, not just across Europe but around the world. Recent polling in 37 countries by the Pew Research Centre found a dramatic shift in the standing of the world’s most prominent political leaders, with the US President plunging in respect and confidence since Trump’s election and Merkel soaring to new heights.
The survey asked respondents in each country whether they had confidence in Trump, Merkel, China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin “to do the right thing regarding world affairs.” Only 22% had such confidence in Trump, while Xi (28%) and Putin (27%) engendered little more confidence. Merkel, on the other hand, had the confidence of 42% of people across the 37 countries, including a median of 60% in Europe. Despite leading a centre-right party, Merkel’s standing is particularly high among centre-left voters, who see her filling a leadership vacuum left by Trump on human rights, democracy and the rule of law.
In Britain just 22% of respondents said they had confidence in Trump to do the right thing, compared to 68% for Merkel. While Downing Street has invested heavily in May building a strong relationship with Trump even China’s President and Communist Party chief engendered more confidence than Trump among British voters, with a rating of 31%.
Merkel had poor ratings in Turkey (14%) and Greece (16%), which have had conflicts with her government over refugees and economic issues but her status almost everywhere else was that of a clear leader of the free world. Canada and Australia, two of the US’s closest allies, showed a striking preference for Merkel over Trump. While only 22% of respondents in each of those countries expressed confidence in Trump, Merkel’s confidence rating was 66% in Canada and 70% in Australia.
by Peter Wilson
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