Politics: Brexit Will Make Corbyn PM, Says Ally

A “no deal” Brexit divorce would force a 2019 general election and open the way for Jeremy Corbyn to become Prime Minister, according to the Labour leader’s most powerful union ally, Len McCluskey.

McCluskey’s comments provided an insight into the strategy and expectations of those around Corbyn, suggesting the Labour game-plan is based on the expectation that Brexit will blow up in the face of the Conservatives either before or immediately after Britain leaves the EU.

McCluskey leads Unite, which is Britain’s biggest union and Labour’s biggest donor, and told the union’s Scottish conference that Theresa May’s Government could be undone by the bravado of senior Tories who claim they would be happy to see the Brexit negotiations end in no special deal with the EU.

“If there’s no deal I believe the Government will fall and we will have a general election,” he said. “And I think there would be a real chance of Labour winning that election and Corbyn coming to power.” The Tories have only a year to reach a deal with the EU, he said, because while the formal Brexit date is not until March 2019 a deal would actually have to be reached by next October so it could be implemented and approved by the 27 other EU member nations.

Many influential Labour strategists believe Corbyn should continue his recent tactic of keeping a relatively low profile on Brexit, concentrating on other issues such as welfare reform and allowing the Government to damage itself over Brexit. Moderate Labour MPs are frustrated by Corbyn’s refusal to openly challenge Brexit or to demand a second referendum, with Corbyn instead insisting that the June 2016 referendum result in favour of Brexit must be respected.

McCluskey’s speech to the conference at Aviemore, in the Highlands, showed that at least one potent Corbyn ally thinks the Conservative divisions over Brexit and the Government’s failure to make major progress in the negotiations could provide the keys to 10 Downing Street for Corbyn.

He said the  “the likelihood at the moment” is that there will be no deal with the EU. “The powers that be will do everything to come up with a deal because what does look to be a certainty is if they come back with a no deal then Parliament will reject it.”

“Within Our Grasp”

While the 10 MPs from the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland have pledged to prop up Theresa May’s minority government in the House of Commons that support would disappear if there was a “no deal” Brexit, McCluskey said.

“The DUP couldn’t support it, because of the issue of the hard border in Ireland, there’s a number of Tories who couldn’t support it and Labour and the SNP would reject it and Theresa May would fall. Then I think we would be into an election in 2019.”

The political elite would “move heaven and earth” to prevent the UK from having to leave the Union without a deal on trade, immigration and other issues, he said. “One thing that they are scared stiff of at the moment is a Corbyn Labour government. If this was Tony Blair or Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband, they would be more relaxed. With Corbyn they are scared stiff that a Labour government under his leadership will actually change the power axis within our nation.”

“That’s how close we are, that is what is within our grasp. We now have an opportunity to transform our society, so I’m hoping for 2019 and I do believe Brexit is the issue that could bring this government down.”

In an analysis that would support a Labour strategy of taking few risks and waiting for the Tories to implode, McCluskey said the Government was “on its last legs” with ministers “stumbling around, reeling from every punch – usually self-inflicted” while the “PM and her cabinet cling to the ropes for survival”.

The Unite leader warned factional opponents of his fellow Left-winger Corbyn to either back Corbyn or “get out of the way”. “Move forward with us, or move over. We have an exciting, real chance for change in this country, to reverse years of neglect and build a better tomorrow.”

Labour lagged well behind the Tories at the June election, winning 262 seats to the Conservatives’ 317 but Corbyn told the conference that he believed Labour could make up some of the gains it needs in Scotland.

Labour held 41 of Scotland’s 59 seats until it suffered an unprecedented backlash in 2015 for having opposed Scottish independence, losing all but one of its seats north of the border. The party picked up a further six seats in this year’s election and Corbyn claimed it was enjoying a “the beginning of a rebirth” in Scotland and would be “in the running for many more” seats at the next election.

“We’ve been written off time and again, but we showed that it is our party that is capturing the mood both in Scotland and across the UK.”

 

by Peter Wilson

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