Brexit: Chaos at Heathrow?

It is Heathrow Airport on a gloomy March morning. Holidaymakers are eager to fly off to resort destinations, businessmen are awaiting flights to visit important clients and families are expecting their loved ones to appear in arrivals. But all of that is thrown into disarray because it is Friday, March 29, 2019, two years since Theresa May triggered Article 50 and Britain has left the EU with no deal.

While a “hard Brexit” would have sweeping consequences, British airports are the front line of UK-EU interactions and could face a nightmare scenario in 2019 unless there are major agreements and concessions by both sides.

Britain’s participation in international flights now depends on permissions that mostly come through the EU in the form of Open Skies agreements. Those permissions require EU membership or an agreement to continue to benefit from such rights.

If no deal is reached with the EU then the number of permitted flights would be limited to some routes outside Europe. Most European and US-bound flights would be stuck on the Heathrow tarmac.

There is no guarantee that an arrangement will be reached and as the broader negotiations between the British Government and the EU continue to drag on without major progress, the aviation industry is becoming more concerned.

That anxiety was highlighted by Karen Dee, the chief executive of the Airport Operators Association, who warned that time is already running out for a deal that could avoid disruption because there are only 17 months left to Brexit.

“With airlines putting tickets on sale up to 18 months in advance of the date of travel, it is vital that a transition deal is agreed as soon as possible to give consumers and businesses the confidence their future travel will be uninterrupted,” she said.

That means airlines already need to start making decisions about whether to operate flights in the UK after Brexit. The risk is that if they do decide to sell tickets and then no deal is reached it could leave holidaymakers stranded and the airlines seriously exposed to major costs in an industry based on complicated logistics and heavy capital financing.

The longer negotiations continue to stall, the more difficult it will be for airlines to plan for the future and the decision to either cancel UK flights or risk chaos is quickly becoming unavoidable. British tourists would enter a new world without reliable access to flights at the same time that airports and other border points were having to introduce new arrangements to cope with the introduction of visa requirements to visit Paris, Madrid or Rome for the first time in a generation.

It is not just those sitting in the departures lounge who would face disorder in the event of a “no deal” scenario. Arrivals to the UK would be confronted with an entirely new customs regime overnight and new border controls.

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ccording to the British Treasury, thousands of more staff will be needed to deal with immigration and customs requirements and a failure to reach a deal with the EU could lead to extensive delays at the borders due to the new restrictions.

There are also concerns that the UK would lack the infrastructure to deal with the new responsibilities that Brexit may thrust upon Britain. There have been concerns, for instance,  about the ability of HMRC to process the massive increase in customs declarations that will be required after Brexit.

The 55 million declarations that are now processed each year will be dwarfed by the 255 million that are predicted for when the UK leaves the EU. Airport faciltites would obviously need to be overhauled to deal with the strain.

Brexit has already created massive uncertainty for British airlines and travellers but one thing is clear. If no deal is in place by Friday March 29, 2019, then there is a real threat that Heathrow, the busiest airport in Europe, may face chaos.

 

by Thomas Chambers

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