When Theresa May was Home Secretary, cracking down on “bogus colleges and over-stayers” made for good headlines in the Right-wing media. To justify tough action, May repeatedly used her 100,000 estimate. May repeatedly used estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONA) in 2015 that around 100,000 students a year overstayed their visas rather than getting a job or going back home.
Except, we now know, that figure was wildly out of whack. The ONS’s latest estimate, published on August 25 and based on new exit checks at Britain’s borders, is that fewer than 5,000 students, or 3% of the total, overstay.
So, Mrs May, what other statistics, figures, guesstimates and general numbers have you got so wildly wrong?
The storm of protests that descended on Diane Abbott over her gaffes on radio and TV was overwhelming. The whimper of criticism that met Prime Minister Theresa May for bungling the estimated numbers of overstaying foreign students was barely noticeable.
The stark message from May to Conservative Party members at their conference two years ago was emphatic: “Let me be clear about students – we welcome students coming to study,” she said.
“But the fact is, too many of them are not returning home as soon as their visa runs out. If they have a graduate job, that is fine.
If not, they must return home. So I don’t care what the university lobbyists say, the rules must be enforced: Students, yes; over-stayers, no. And the universities must make this happen.”
Now – finally – the Government is to find out the real truth of the numbers of students. Home Secretary Amber Rudd is launching an investigation into the real impact of international students on the UK’s society and economy.
Not before time, you might say, the investigation will look at the effect EU and non-EU students have on the British labour market while they are in the UK.
The UK stopped counting people in and out of the country in the 1990s, casting doubt on the accuracy of official immigration estimates, which are based on a small random survey at points of entry. A much-delayed new exit-check system was introduced in April 2015 with the aim of building a more complete picture of whether those who entered the UK left when they were supposed to.
There has been a particular focus on the large gap between estimates of arrivals and departures of foreign nationals who come to Britain to study. The difference – which averaged about 110,000 a year between 2012 and 2015 – fuelled questions over whether students were remaining in the country beyond the end of their courses.
Rudd said when announcing the new study that there was “no limit to the number of genuine international students who can come to the UK to study, and the fact that we remain the second-most popular global destination (after the US) for those seeking higher education is something to be proud of.”
The in-depth analysis of international students, to be carried out by the government’s Migration Advisory Committee, will look at the impact of tuition fees and other spending by foreign students on the national, regional and local economies. It will also consider the impact their recruitment has on the quality of education given to domestic students.
The committee is due to report back by September next year. Alistair Jarvis, chief executive of Universities UK, welcomed the study. “This is an opportunity to build on the considerable evidence that shows that international students have a very positive impact on the UK economy and local communities,” he said.
Lord Green of Deddington, who chairs Migration Watch UK, also backed the new study, insisting that in the absence of independent figures the “higher education lobby” had been able to dominate debate about the impact of foreign students. “The government will now be able to formulate policy on the basis of more wide-ranging evidence,” he said.
by Bob Graham
The post Politics: Barely a Peep at May’s Wrong Numbers appeared first on Felix Magazine.
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