Brexit: How will it affect climate policy?

Brexit often feels like its own melting glacier. International voices clash in a hot storm while the sweat and tears of all those affected enough are deep enough to drown a nation. But how is climate change policy, which will influence Britain’s future for centuries, faring in a political era obsessed by the shorter term priority of Brexit and the related negotiations that are supposed to be settled over the next year or two?

The Committee on Climate Change

Created by the Climate Change Act of 2008, the Committee on Climate Change advises the UK government on setting and meeting carbon budgets and preparing for climate change. In October it produced a briefing note outlining the implications of Brexit for climate change action such as the UK’s commitment to the Paris Agreement, which aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions and keep the increase in global average temperatures since the Industrial Revolution below 2°C.

The UK was committed to that agreement as an EU member state but Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson ratified the agreement at the end of last year to confirm that Brexit would not change that position. Nevertheless the committee pointed out other areas of concern as well as opportunities.

EU policies under UK law

The UK has long had a strong influence on EU climate policy but must now carve out its own role in international climate talks. Crucially it will have to establish its own authority to implement the targets backed by the EU, since it will no longer fall under the EU’s enforcement regime. “Overall, we estimate that policies agreed by the UK at EU-level have contributed around 40% of the reduction in UK emissions since 1990,” said the CCC.

The committee offered examples of commitments the UK had already implemented through its own laws like the EU Renewable Energy Directive, under which the UK target is to supply 15% of energy from renewable sources by 2020.

The EU Waste and Landfill Directives have been a success for the UK through the Landfill Tax that was introduced in 1996 and has seen emissions from landfill fall by around 80%. The Large Combustion Plant and Industrial Emissions Directives mainly targeted air quality but has seen coal burning for generating electricity fall by 43% in a decade.

EU-wide Enforcement

These are the more sensitive EU-wide commitments that will no longer apply to the UK until it copies the pledges and enforces them itself. They are big regulation projects like the emissions trading system launched in 2005 in which companies buy emission allowances from an overall emissions cap that is gradually reduced. If they reduce their emissions so that they are in credit they can then sell those spare allowances to companies that exceed their allowance and must buy more credit to avoid heavy fines.

The environmental think-tank Sandbags said climate policy would benefit if the UK left the EU’s ETS and formed its own carbon policies. That is likely given that the ETS relies on the European Court of Justice and Theresa May has taken a hard line against remaining under any aspect of the court’s jurisdiction. “If the UK does leave the EU ETS it should use the opportunity to put in place an innovative set of policy measures to achieve its carbon budgets optimally, and so continue its international leadership in the area of climate policy,” Sandbags said.

The CCC also noted EU-wide regulation of product standards and in particular the fuel efficiency of new cars and vans that will no longer cover the UK. “EU policy has helped improve efficiency of new cars sold in the UK by 19% since 2009 but this has been broadly offset by increasing distances travelled,” it said.

Fortunately the UK has been a consistent leader in EU climate policy and what has been achieved is unlikely to be rolled back. “The fifth carbon budget was legislated by Parliament and the new Government following the Brexit vote,” said the CCC. “It commits the UK to a 57% reduction in emissions from 1990 to 2030.” The committee warned that progress until now suggests that at most only half of that target will be met.

Climate policy is still waiting in the wings but must not be an afterthought cobbled together in the closing days of Brexit negotiations. It is yet another area where more intense cooperation and discussion with Europe would be more valuable than  bickering among ourselves US chickens.

by Stewart Vickers

 

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